Premier League title thriller: Will Arsenal finally end the drought or will City hunt them down again?

Arsenal were seven points clear at one stage but recent results including draws and narrow wins against lesser sides have exposed familiar frailties. Mikel Arteta's men boast the league's best defensive record and devastating set-piece threat, but questions persist about their ability to hold nerve in the run-in. This is now their third straight season contending for the title, and the "bottling" narrative from previous campaigns (collapsing late in 2022-23 and 2023-24) hangs heavy. Can they finally banish those demons?

Manchester City, as ever under Pep Guardiola, are grinding results even when not playing vintage football. Erling Haaland is hitting peak form again, and their squad depth means they rarely stay down for long. If anyone knows how to chase down a leader, it's City.

Aston Villa continue to impress under Unai Emery, with their counter-attacking style and recent wins over big sides marking them as serious contenders.

Chelsea, fourth at Christmas, embody unpredictability: capable of stunning the elite one week (beating top sides convincingly) and dropping points to mid-table teams the next. Enzo Maresca's young squad has flair in abundance but lacks consistency a trait that could cost them dearly in the race for top four.

Liverpool's title defence has unravelled. Salah, despite signing an extension earlier this year, has been embroiled in public spats, dropped for key games, and linked with Saudi moves. The uncertainty has disrupted Arne Slot's side, who now risk missing out on Champions League spots altogether if results don't improve sharply.

Key fixtures ahead

The schedule remains brutal. Arsenal have a potential decider against City, plus tricky ties with Villa and resurgent sides. City face awkward away days, while Villa's momentum could carry them deep into spring.

Chelsea's rollercoaster form makes them hard to predict one bad run and fifth place (or lower) beckons. Liverpool must navigate Salah distractions and a congested fixture list to salvage top four.

Our prediction

It's excruciatingly close, but Arsenal will hold on to win their first Premier League title since 2004 just.

Arteta's team has the defensive solidity and set-piece edge to grind out results, even if their recent wobble and historical tendency to falter late raise doubts. The hunger to end that 21-year wait will drive them over the line, though City will push them to the wire, possibly until the final day.

Supercomputer models still favour the Gunners (around 65-70% chance), ahead of City's 25-30%.

Final top five: 1. Arsenal, 2. Manchester City, 3. Aston Villa, 4. Chelsea, 5. Liverpool (clinging on despite the turmoil).

Liverpool's Salah saga and inconsistencies could indeed see them drop out of the Champions League places if a rival like Newcastle or Manchester United hits form. Chelsea's unpredictability adds spice they could crash out or surge into third.

This title race is poised to be an all-time classic. Strap in.